Purpose: Eliminate random bias selection. Every marketing task has an optimal bias stack based on audience temperature, product type, and platform. Use this matrix as the first filter before opening the bias catalog.
| Temperature | Definition | Primary Biases | Secondary | DO NOT Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold (never heard of you) | Scrolling, no awareness, no pain recognition | Availability (vivid story) + Fear/Loss (name the pain they didn't know they had) | Framing, Authority | Social Proof, Sunk Cost, In-Group (they don't know you yet) |
| Warm (aware, not convinced) | Knows the problem exists, comparing solutions | Social Proof + Anchoring + Confirmation | Framing, Authority, Availability | Scarcity (premature), Fear (already aware of problem) |
| Hot (ready to buy, hesitating) | On the page, in the cart, at the webinar | Loss Aversion + Scarcity + Risk Reversal | Social Proof, Sunk Cost, Endowment | Availability (too late for stories), Authority (already trusted) |
| Lapsed (bought before, silent now) | Past customer, inactive subscriber | In-Group + Status Quo + Sunk Cost | Endowment, Reciprocity, Loss Aversion | Fear (don't scare people who already paid you) |
| Skeptical (aware, actively resistant) | Thinks category is scam/overhyped | Bias Blind Spot + Authority + Backfire-Effect-safe framing | Social Proof (only if peer-level), Cognitive Dissonance | Confirmation (will backfire), Scarcity (feels manipulative) |
| Stranger (cold outreach - zero trust) | You're contacting them. They don't know you. Negative attention credit. | Availability (pattern-interrupt observation) + Reciprocity (give insight first) + Status Quo (micro-ask) | Fundamental Attribution Error (validate their work), Confirmation (acknowledge something specific they did) | Social Proof, In-Group, Scarcity, Fear, Sunk Cost, Authority (beyond one credible signal) - all of these require existing trust |
| Defensive (crisis/apology - trust is broken) | Customers are angry or anxious. You're not selling - you're repairing. | Bias Blind Spot (reversed - admit fault) + Fundamental Attribution Error (reversed - own it) + Cognitive Dissonance (reconciliation) | Status Quo (reversed - prove structural change), Loss Aversion (restore reliability), Reciprocity (offer restitution unprompted) | Confirmation, Scarcity, Social Proof, In-Group, Halo Effect - all offensive biases backfire here |
| Product Type | Examples | Dominant Biases | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low-ticket B2C (<$50) | App subscription, ebook, consumable | Social Proof + Scarcity + Loss Aversion + Halo Effect | Snap decisions. System 1 dominates. Price objection is minimal. |
| Mid-ticket B2C ($50–$500) | Course, gadget, premium subscription | Anchoring + Social Proof + Risk Reversal + Endowment (trial) | System 1 hooks, System 2 justifies. Trial = ownership = conversion. |
| High-ticket B2C ($500+) | Coaching, luxury goods, travel | Authority + Anchoring + Halo Effect + Risk Reversal + In-Group | Trust is everything. Price must be anchored. Exclusivity sells. |
| B2B SaaS (monthly/annual) | CRM, analytics, project mgmt | Authority + Sunk Cost + Status Quo + Loss Aversion + Anchoring | Long sales cycle. Switching cost is the #1 objection. ROI framing essential. |
| B2B Services (project-based) | Consulting, agency, dev shop | Authority + Social Proof (case studies) + Anchoring + Sunk Cost | Credibility is product. Case studies = social proof. Past results = sunk cost for prospect's research time. |
| Info-products | Courses, ebooks, templates | Availability (transformation story) + Anchoring (value stack) + Scarcity + Confirmation | Sell the transformation, not the PDF. Value stack inflates perceived worth. |
| Health/Wellness | Supplements, coaching, fitness | Fear/Loss (health threat) + Authority (science/credentials) + Social Proof (transformations) + Status Quo | Health fear is the strongest motivator. Transformations are survivorship bias done right. |
| Community/Membership | Paid groups, networks, events | In-Group + Status Quo + Social Proof + Group Polarization + Sunk Cost | Belonging IS the product. Retention > acquisition. |
| Platform | Attention Span | Best Biases | Worst Biases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twitter/X | <3 seconds | Framing, False Consensus, Social Proof (numbers), Confirmation (hot take) | Sunk Cost (no time to build), Anchoring (complex), Cognitive Dissonance (needs space) |
| 5–15 seconds | Authority, Availability (story), Sunk Cost, Anchoring | Scarcity (feels salesy), Fear (too aggressive for feed) | |
| Instagram (visual) | <1 second (visual), 5–10s (caption) | Halo Effect, Social Proof, Survivorship (before/after), Endowment | Sunk Cost, Cognitive Dissonance, Backfire Effect (too complex for format) |
| TikTok/Reels | <1 second (hook), stay <30s | Availability, Social Proof, Halo Effect, Fear (quick shock) | Sunk Cost, Anchoring (no time), Backfire Effect |
| Subject: <1s, Body: 30–60s | Reciprocity, Endowment, Sunk Cost, Loss Aversion, In-Group | Halo Effect (can't control visual enough), Availability (unless it's THE story) | |
| Landing Page | Hero: <3s, Full: 2–5 min | Full stack possible. See scenarios/landing-page.md for section-by-section map. |
Backfire Effect (don't start with objections), False Consensus (assumes agreement too early) |
| Webinar | 60–90 min | Full stack. See scenarios/webinar-warmup.md for minute-by-minute map. |
- |
| Search Ads | <1 second | Social Proof (ratings), Authority, Anchoring (price), Loss Aversion | Availability (no room for stories), Sunk Cost |
1. IDENTIFY audience temperature → section 1 above
└─ Pick 2 primary biases from that row.
2. IDENTIFY product type → section 2 above
└─ Add 1–2 dominant biases for this product category.
3. IDENTIFY platform → section 3 above
└─ Remove any bias listed in "Worst Biases" column.
└─ Constrain format to match attention span.
4. COMBINE:
└─ Primary stack = (audience primaries) + (product dominants) − (platform exclusions)
└─ Aim for 3–5 biases total. Less than 3 = underpowered. More than 5 = unfocused.
5. VALIDATE:
└─ Do biases complement or compete? Loss Aversion (#5) + Social Proof (#1) complement (fear drives action, crowd validates). Loss Aversion (#5) + Confirmation (#7) compete (fear says "danger ahead", confirmation says "you were right all along").
└─ Adjust if needed.
| Task | Audience | Product | Platform | Bias Stack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch teaser post | Cold | Any | Twitter/X | Availability + Fear + Framing |
| Launch day post | Warm → Hot | Mid-B2C | Social Proof + Anchoring + Scarcity | |
| Cold ad (video) | Cold | Low-B2C | TikTok | Availability + Fear + Social Proof → CTA |
| Retargeting ad | Warm → Hot | Mid-B2C | Endowment + Loss Aversion + Social Proof | |
| Welcome email #1 | Warm | SaaS | Reciprocity + Endowment + Status Quo | |
| Nurture email #3 | Warm | Info-product | Authority + Availability + Sunk Cost | |
| Sales email #5 | Hot | High-B2C | Loss Aversion + Scarcity + Risk Reversal | |
| Landing hero | Cold → Warm | SaaS | Web | Framing (problem) + Loss Aversion + Authority |
| Pricing section | Hot | Any | Web | Anchoring + Social Proof + Risk Reversal |
| Webinar hook (min 1) | Cold → Warm | Info-product | Video | Availability + Framing + Authority |
| Webinar offer (min 50) | Hot | Info-product | Video | Anchoring + Social Proof + Scarcity + Risk Reversal |
| Re-engagement email | Lapsed | SaaS | In-Group + Sunk Cost + Loss Aversion | |
| Cart abandonment #2 | Hot | Low-B2C | Social Proof + Confirmation + Loss Aversion | |
| Sales page (high-ticket) | Cold → Hot | High-B2C | Web (long-form) | Full arc: Framing (headline) → Loss Aversion (subhead) → Availability (story) → Fear (problem agitation) → Confirmation (validation) → Framing + In-Group (solution reveal) → Authority + Anchoring (mechanism) → Survivorship + Social Proof (case studies) → Backfire Effect (objection demolition) → Endowment + Anchoring (offer) → Risk Reversal (pricing + guarantee) → Scarcity + Sunk Cost (urgency close) |
| Case study (success story) | Warm → Hot | Any | Any | Availability (real person) + Fear/Loss (quantified pain) + Social Proof + Survivorship (quantified result) + Confirmation (testimonial quote) |
| Pricing page (dedicated) | Hot | Any | Web | Anchoring (tiers, expensive first) + Halo Effect (visual target tier) + Loss Aversion (annual framing) + Status Quo (easy migration FAQ) + Risk Reversal (guarantee) |
| Cold outreach (email/DM) | Stranger | B2B | Email / DM | Availability (pattern-interrupt) + Confirmation (personalization) + Reciprocity (give insight first) + Status Quo (low-friction ask) + Authority (one credibility signal) |
| Crisis response / apology | Defensive | Any | Public / Email | Bias Blind Spot (reversed) + Fundamental Attribution Error (reversed) + Cognitive Dissonance (reconciliation) + Status Quo (reversed - prove change) + Loss Aversion (restore reliability) + Reciprocity (restitution) |
| Product review / testimonial | Warm → Hot | Any | Web / Video / Social | Social Proof (specific result) + Availability (personal story) + Survivorship (transformation) + Confirmation (buyer's choice validated) |
| Job posting / hiring | Warm (active seekers) | N/A (employer brand) | LinkedIn / Web | In-Group (shared values) + Authority (company credibility) + Loss Aversion (opportunity cost) + Halo Effect (brand prestige) + Status Quo (easy application) |
| Investor pitch / fundraising | Cold → Warm | N/A (company as product) | Deck / Email / Web | Authority (team + traction) + Anchoring (market size) + Fear/Loss (missed opportunity) + Social Proof (existing backers) + Survivorship (competitive moat) |